阿巴森

观点:莫迪的“大盘菜经济学”是糟糕经济的处方

View: Modi’s ‘thalinomics’ is a recipe for bad economy

观点:莫迪的“大盘菜经济学”是糟糕经济的处方

Indian food, when done right, comes in a thali — a metal plate with half a dozen or more little bowls of vegetables, pickles, and so on. The word of the week in India is “thalinomics”: The go nment’s official survey of the Indian economy, published a few days ago, introduced the word to talk about how food was getting cheaper for people across the country. But it is now being used to talk about the go nment’s entire approach to the Indian economy — a little bit of this, a little bit of that, all mixed up together till you are unsure what you’re eating.

印度菜做好后,会装在一个 thali——金属浅盘里,里面有6份及以上的小碗蔬菜、泡菜等等。在印度,本周的关键词是“大盘菜经济学”(thalinomics):前些天公布的有关印度经济的官方调查引入了“大盘菜经济学”(thalinomics)一词,谈论印度各地的食品如何变得越来越便宜。但现在这个词被用于评价政府对印度经济的整体策略——这个来一点,那个来一点,一锅大杂烩,让你都不确定自己吃的是什么。

What works for food doesn’t quite work when it comes to economic policy. Every year at the end of January the Indian finance minister presents the federal budget, which is not just a statement of revenue and expenditure but also a guide to policy-making in the coming year. Given the intensity of India’s slowdown — six successive quarters of slowing growth, taking it down from almost 8% to 4.5%, a six-year low — all that Indian investors and consumers really wanted from their go nment at this point was some clarity. What is its plan? How does it intend to reverse the slowdown and raise India’s growth trajectory? By that standard, the only one that matters, the go nment’s budget — presented on Saturday — was a failure. It tried to do too much, and ended up serving a mismatched platter of competing flavors.

对粮食有效的政策对于经济政策并不十分奏效。每年1月底,印度财政部长都会提交联邦预算,这不仅是一份收入和支出的报表,也是对来年政府决策的指导。考虑到印度经济放缓的严重程度——连续6个季度增长放缓,从近8%降至4.5%,降至6年来的最低值——印度投资者和消费者此时此刻只希望获得政府的明确表态。政府的计划是什么?打算如何扭转经济放缓趋势,提拉印度的增长轨迹?按照这个唯一重要的标准,政府在周六提交的预算就是个失败。它想要的太多,结果端上来的是一盘风味完全无法融合的菜。

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Some people hoped that the go nment would junk its fiscal targets and spend its way out of trouble — a bad idea, as I have argued earlier, albeit one that might have temporarily increased business confidence. Others prayed it would stick to its deficit reduction targets, in order to restore credibility to its battered reputation. In the end, the budget took a middle course — it allowed a fiscal slippage of 0.5% of GDP, to 3.5%. Not enough to be considered a real stimulus, but not quite enough to save ratings agencies from tut-tutting either. The finance minister claimed to be cutting middle-class taxes, but most taxpayers are unlikely to benefit from the budget’s changes. And the stock market — which fell 2.4% after the budget was presented — was dismayed that a tax on long-term capital gains stayed in place.

一些人希望政府放弃其财政目标,通过投资摆脱困境——正如我早些时候所指出的,这是一个坏主意,尽管它可能暂时增强了商业信心。另一些人则祈祷政府坚持削减赤字的目标,以恢复其受损的信誉。最后,政府预算采取了中间路线——允许财政支出从GDP中下调0.5%到3.5%。这算不上真正的刺激,但也不至于让评级机构唏嘘。财政部长声称要削减中产阶级的税收,但大多数纳税人都不太可能从预算的变化中受益。在预算公布后,股市下跌了2.4%,股市对长期资本利得税依然存在感到很失望。

The go nment was similarly confused about trade. One section of the finance minister’s speech insisted that India must become part of the global value chains that are shifting slowly away from mainland China; but another, larger section was devoted to the sort of protectionist rhetoric we last heard in the socialist, isolationist 1970s. Tariffs were raised on a slew of products to protect Indian manufacturing. India continues to close itself off to trade when it should be opening up.

政府对贸易也同样感到困惑。印度财政部长讲话中坚称,印度必须成为全球价值链的一部分,而全球价值链正在缓慢地从中国大陆撤离;但说的更多的是我们在上世纪70年代sh主义孤立主义时期最后听到的那种保护主义言论。为了保护印度的制造业,印度提高了一系列产品的关税。印度在应该开放的时候继续关闭贸易。

Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, likes to be seen as an economic reformer but his go nment’s instincts have revealed themselves as anything but reformist. What’s now clear is that it doesn’t have a coherent agenda, either. Moreover, Modi’s go nment has spent so much time talking up its own achievements that, when faced with a crisis, it can’t afford to acknowledge its mistakes and take any real corrective action.

印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪喜欢自诩经济改革家,但他领导的政府显示,他们绝不是改革派。现在很清楚的是,政府没有一个连贯的思路。此外,莫迪政府花了太多时间吹嘘自己的成就,以至于在面临危机时,不愿承认自己的错误并采取任何真正的纠正行动。

The question for Indian investors now is: What could force the go nment to focus on the economy? The slowdown wasn’t enough. Voters seem to care more about social issues. Big business is so scared of the Indian state that it never speaks up. Buried in the budget numbers is one answer to investors’ questions about what will make the go nment move, albeit one that will dismay a lot of people: the bond market, and ratings agencies.

印度投资者现在面临的问题是:怎样才能迫使政府专注于经济?经济放缓还不够严重。选民似乎更关心社会问题。大企业非常害怕印度政府,从不敢说。在这些预算数字中,有一个答案可以回答投资者提出的政府将何去何从的问题,尽管这个问题会让很多人失望:债券市场和评级机构。

This is a pretty good idea. There’s no reason why Indians’ limited household savings should be the only ones raided by the go nment to fund its spending. Indian bureaucrats have always been sniffy about foreign capital, but they can no longer afford to put on airs. Yet depending on foreign capital to finance the deficit isn’t going be straightforward if the go nment keeps overspending. Moody’s Investors Service pointed out that “India’s general go nment debt is already significantly higher than the average for Baa-rated sovereigns”; the agency had shifted its outlook to negative late last year. So good news of a sort, I suppose: In deciding to depend upon global pools of capital, India’s go nment will be forced to listen to at least one group of people who care about growth and investment. It’s up to the bond markets now to do what nobody else has: Get Modi focused on the economy.

这是个好主意。印度人有限的家庭储蓄没有理由成为政府掠夺的唯一资金来源。印度的官僚们一直对外资嗤之以鼻,但他们再也不能装腔作势了。但如果政府继续过度支出,依靠外国资本为赤字融资也不是件容易的事情。穆迪投资者服务公司指出,“印度的一般政府债务已经明显高于Baa评级主权债务的平均水平”;去年年底,该机构将印度的经济前景调为负面。因此,我认为这算是一个好消息:在决定依赖全球资本池时,印度政府将被迫听取至少一群关心增长和投资的人的意见。现在轮到债券市场做别人没做过的事了:让莫迪专注于经济。

以下是《印度经济时报》网站网友评论: 

译文来源:阿巴森       http://www.abaripsen.com/49296.html    译者:Joyceliu 

Puthumbaka Raghu Kumar

Finance Ministry is in the hands of Psuedo economists and nothing better can be expected.

财政部掌握在Psuedo经济学家手中,不用指望能有什么好了。

 

Raj Tillan

finance has be in the hands of trusted ones ...

金融已掌握在可信任的人手中…

 

Ashish Bagade

In addition to Thalieconomics, the go nment should consider increases in rents/house prices and utilities for any meaningful comparison.

除了大盘菜经济,政府还应该注意租金/房价和公用事业的上涨,以便进行有意义的比较。

 

Jaywant Nitturkar

This moron Mihir does not understand the life of ordinary man...for them inflation is their biggest enemy...instead of appreciating the fact that food plate has become more affordable, he is mocking...another stupid comment of his"Govt. living beyond its means..." The Deficit in America and most of the world is far higher than that of India...fact that he disingenuously forgot to mention,

这个笨蛋米希尔不了解普通人的生活……对他们来说,通货膨胀是他们最大的敌人…他非但没有意识到菜盘子变得更便宜了,反而在嘲笑……对他的“政府”又做了个愚蠢的评论:入不敷出……”美国和世界大部分地区的赤字远远高于印度。他却刻意避而不提。

 

Bhojmanb

this media group is BJP supporter

这个媒体集团是人民党的支持者。

 

Greg

Good Article

这是一篇好文章。

 

Madhukar Malhotra

Think Mihir Sharma is a diehard socialist and not an open minded economist he is touted to be. India will shine after the dirt of communal and appeasement politics by previous go nments is reversed and progress is the key word.

我认为米希尔•夏尔马是一位顽固的sh主义者,而不是人们吹捧的那种思想开放的经济学家。前几届政府的种族主义和绥靖主义政治的污点被抹去之后,印度将会焕发出光芒,进步才是关键。

 

Raj Tillan

most economists are ideologues.

大多数经济学家都是理论家。

 

Russell Ian Duarte

Modi, Seetharaman, AShah and other clowns, when and where was the last time you ate a Veg and A non veg thali, can you be decent enough to order or treat us at your expense,,, of course its our money finally that you get as salary that u will pay.

莫迪,西沙拉曼, AShah和其他小丑,你们最后一次吃素食和非素食大盘菜是在什么时候、在哪儿,你们能坦荡地点餐,自己付账吗?当然了,最后论起来,那还是我们的钱,你领了工资,付了饭钱。

 

Raj Tillan

like it or not clowns are wearing crowns

不管你喜不喜欢,小丑都戴着王冠。

 

Bhojmanb

70 years of Indian history go nment agenda is to built Ram Mandir. in this country we have single Virulogy lab in Pune only. any where the suspect of corona virus detected the samples goes to Pune and that cost 5 days extra due to transportation, every city does not have direct flight to pune.

纵观印度70年的历史,政府的目的就是建立拉姆寺庙。我们国家只有浦那的一个病毒实验室。无论哪个地方发现疑似冠状病毒,样本都得送往浦那,交通要多花5天时间,每个城市都没有直飞浦那的航班。

 

Hemant Pisat

Yeshwant Sinha time BJP did good on economic fronts.

在Yeshwant Sinha时期,人民党在经济方面的表现很好。

 

Bijul Desai

HONESTLY ...i feel go nment is really confused and not sure of it's economic policies !! Once policy is announced there are multiple tweaking / Changes ..! As a common man Onion price /petrol / chopped rates on Fix deposit / PPF / LC ...hurts ..

老实说……我觉得政府真的很困惑,对自己的经济政策并不明确!!一旦政策公布,就会有多种震荡/改变!作为一位普通人,洋葱价格/汽油/固定存款利率大幅下调/ PPF / LC…都让百姓受伤。

 

Raj Tillan

confused so are the highly educated in western economics advisors.. US methods are not apt like veggies can not handle BAT pickles.

困惑的是受过高等教育的西方经济顾问。美国的方法不适合印度,就像素食者无法忍受蝙蝠泡菜。

 

Rajesh T

slow down today is the long term effect of demonetisation

今天的放缓是废钞令带来的长期影响。

 

Raj Tillan

Nehruvian fabian socialist economy with intrusive regulation and financial terrorism on semi literate entrepreneurs

尼赫鲁式的费边sh主义经济,对半文盲企业家实施干预性监管和金融恐怖主义。

 

Realdeshbhakt

Mihir,I hope you have passport ready. Modi is narcissistic-insecure man with agenda of vengeance.He is not known for humility or intelligence.

米希尔,我希望你已经准备好了护照。莫迪是一个自恋且缺乏安全感的人,他会报复。他既不谦逊也不聪明。

 

Raj Tillan

UK is offering good opportunities to Indian investors and advisors

英国为印度投资者和顾问提供了很好的机会。

 

Ramesh Shah

THIS IS HOW THE 5 TRILLION US D ECONOMIES CAN B BUILT.......

5万亿美元就是这么吹出来的。

 

Biju Pols

Modi is uneducated but loaded with Jumlas .. His 18000 paid coolies are defending him in the social media. Modi loot the common man to pay to his coolies

莫迪没受过教育…他雇佣的18000名水军在社交媒体上为他辩护。莫迪抢劫老百姓来付酬金。

 

Bhojmanb

No any state go nment in India is interested in Public Transport system in the bigger cities. Public transport should be encouraged and that will have bigger impact of reducing road accidents and environmental pollution, less road maintenance etc. but neither the center nor any state Government work for public betterment all are in the politics for their family gain, land grabbing and amass of wealth for their kin.

印度没有哪个邦的政府对大城市的公共交通系统感兴趣。这就是痛苦所在。应该鼓励公共交通,对减少交通事故和环境污染带去更大影响,也会减少道路养护压力,但无论是中央还是各邦政府都没有致力于改善公共交通,他们都为了各自的家庭利益、攫取土地、为亲属聚敛财富而投身政坛。

 

Raman

You must be educated from RSS school to come with such dumb ideas. Dumbos like you elected imbecile like Modi.

你肯定接受的是RSS学校的教育,才会有这种愚蠢的想法。你们这些蠢蛋推选出了莫迪这样的低能儿。

 

Raj Tillan

we should consult desi economists like Arun Shouri. Swamy, Gurumurthy, Shaktikant, K K kamath

我们应该咨询像Arun Shouri, Swamy, Gurumurthy, Shaktikant, K K kamath这样的经济学家。

 

Sudesh Prakash Yadav

Mihir Sharma has a doctorate in spreading negativity about Indian economy. He comes up with silly articles every second day. Epitomizes the paid media with a hidden agenda.

夏尔马拥有博士学位,传播对印度经济负面看法。他每隔一天就写一些无聊的文章。这是付费媒体的软文。

 

AG

Feku maharaj has only jumla. No plans or vision for the economy and the country.

莫迪只会穷开心。没有对经济和国家制定的计划或愿景。

 

Gopalpk Krisanaswami

irrespective what govt plans indian economy is more driven by entrepreneur ship of our industry. As Rusi modi use to say if you can succeed in India you can succeed anywhere

不管政府计划如何,印度经济更多的是由我们各行业的企业家推动的。正如莫迪过去常说的,如果你能在印度成功,你就能在任何地方成功。

外文链接:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/view-modis-thalinomics-is-a-recipe-for-a-bad-economy/articleshow/73950891.cms

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