无极4

不动用大规模杀伤性武器,美国有可能在3-6周内彻底击败印度军队吗

Is it possible for the United States to completely defeat (complete annihilation of every standing military unit) India's military within 3-6 weeks with no WMDs on either side and no allies?

在没有大规模杀伤性武器和盟友的情况下,美国有可能在3-6周内彻底击败印度军队(彻底消灭所有军事机构)吗?

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以下是Quora读者的评论:

Balaji Viswanathan Have been studying US history for a decade.

This is for thought exercise and I hope people don't get offended. Like always the disclaimer is that I have no experience in the military. 

It primarily depends on what the US wants to achieve and how much effort it can put. If what US wants to achieve is ruling India, it would be impossible no matter the timeline, leave alone in under 3-6 weeks. On the other hand, if the US wants to make a point and the Indian government can give it easily [say ,no relations with Iran or buy our weapons], US can get that thing done easily in weeks [but with a huge cost]. 

Let's say US indeed wants to capture India, Some quick facts:

这是让我们做思辨练习的,希望大家不要生气。我要先声明,我没有从军经验。

这主要取决于美国想要获得什么,以及它能付出多少努力。如果美国想要实现的是统治印度,无论多久都是不可能的,更别提3-6周了。另一方面,如果美国想要表明自己的观点,印度政府可以轻易做出让步(比如不与伊朗建立关系或购买我们的武器),美国可以在几周内轻松完成(但代价高昂)。

如果美国确实想占领印度,下面是一些简单的事实:

1.India's population of 1.3 billion is about 40 times that of Iraq or Afghanistan.

2.India's area of 3.2 million sq km is about 20 times the area of Iraq and 40 times that of Syria.

3.India's coastline of 7500 km is 150 times that of Iraq.

4.The entire West Asian population [Iran to Israel] is only a little more than the population of one Indian state - Uttar Pradesh.

5.India has a nuclear sub, IRBMs and two carriers. Syria, Iraq, Vietnam and others didn't.

You think Middle East is confusing? Break into India and you will see the heterogeneity and chaos. Here is the map of India laid over the middle east [ignore the Kashmir getting cut at the top, as the tool doesn't allow the full map of India]. The continental nature of India's climate means one part the US army would feel like they are in Vietnam, while another part would be like Iraq and a third part might look like Korea. In none of these 3 places, with much smaller challenges involved did the US win, leave alone winning in 6 weeks. 

1.印度拥有13亿人口,大约是伊拉克或阿富汗人口的40倍。

2.印度的国土面积是320万平方公里,是伊拉克的20倍,叙利亚的40倍。

3.印度的海岸线是7500公里,是伊拉克的150倍。

4.整个西亚人口(伊朗至以色列)只比印度北方邦的人口多一点点。

5.印度有一艘核潜艇、一艘弹道导弹和两艘航母。叙利亚、伊拉克、越南和其他国家没有。

你认为中东令人眼花缭乱?进入印度,你会看到真正的多样性和混乱。这是印度在中东地区的地图(忽略顶部割走的克什米尔)。印度的大陆性气候意味着,一部分美国军队会觉得他们在越南,而另一部分会觉得自己身处伊拉克,第三部分又可能觉得自己身处韩国。在这三个挑战相对小得多的地方,美国都没有获胜,更不用说要在6周内获胜了。

Taking India means you have to take the big, blue Indian Ocean. How many places below can US use for logistical support?

占领印度意味着你必须占领广阔的蓝色印度洋。美国能通过以下几个地方进行后勤支援呢?

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While in theory, there are all these numbers [of jets, bombs, aircraft carriers] and so on, in practice it is hard to win any nation that is not imploding within. That has always been true. 

Alexander could win Persia, because Darius III was nearly a puppet ruler placed by his Vizier. Genghis Khan could win China because the Song were busy trying to put the Jin down. Britain could win India because the civil war post the Mughal empire's collapse meant India was imploding within [even that conquest took a century]. No civilization could win an another when both were at the top of their strength.

Iraq is an extremely small nation surrounded by US allies and in the first gulf war whole world was united in fighting the Saddam who was just exhausted fighting Iran for nearly a decade. After six months of the whole world fighting, Saddam was still not toppled. He just pulled out of Kuwait. 

虽然理论上有这么多(飞机、诈弹、航空母舰等),但在实践中,很难赢得任何一个没有内乱的国家。这一直是事实。

亚历山大可以赢得波斯,是因为大流士三世基本上就是一个大臣控制的傀儡统治者。成吉思汗之所以能赢得中国,是因为宋朝正忙于震压晋朝。英国之所以能赢得印度,是因为莫卧儿帝国垮台后爆发了内战。当两种文明都各自处于各自巅峰状态时,任何文明都不可能赢过另一种文明。

伊拉克是一个被美国盟国包围的非常小的国家,在第一次海湾战争中,整个世界联手对抗萨达姆,而萨达姆已经跟伊朗苦战了近十年。经过全世界6个月的战斗,萨达姆仍然没有被推翻。他刚从科威特撤军。

译文来源:无极4  http://www.abaripsen.com/48255.html 译者:Joyceliu

Again, in a total war nations seldom play not dirty. A big chunk of world's trade goes around the Indian ocean and these are not too far for India's missiles. If Somalia can wreak so much havoc to global shipping think of what India can. 

No nation can win another nation near the top of its strength in 6 weeks, especially one with 1.3 billion people. US can seriously cripple India's defenses and destroy most of its boats & planes though if it brings all its might and India doesn't use its nuclear option nor call its friends.

Since neither can win a war, we stay in peace. There is so much that could be achieved with peace. India and the US love each other and there is so much to lose.

再说一次,在全面战争中,很少有国家不搞阴谋手段。世界贸易的很大一部分是围绕印度洋进行的,而印度洋对印度的导弹来说并不遥远。如果区区索马里都能对全球航运造成如此大的破坏,想想看印度能做什么吧。

没有一个国家能在6周内打赢另一个接近实力巅峰的国家,尤其是一个拥有13亿人口的国家。如果美国竭尽全力,印度动用核武器,也不召集盟国,美国可以严重削弱印度的国防,摧毁其大部分的船只和飞机。

既然谁也不能赢得战争,我们就维持和平局面吧。有了和平,我们可以取得许多成就。

 

Anonymous

Let us separate this conflict into three sections: Navy, Air Force, and Army.

NAVY. At present, perhaps the US Navy is the only true blue water navy in the world. Indian Navy is a green water navy. (No offence meant to Indian Navy and its brave sailors - but facts are facts. Let us not get all emotional.) The reality is, a single US carrier battle group packs sufficient firepower to single-handedly defeat most navies in the world. In an Indian Navy versus US Navy battle, perhaps three US carrier battle groups and a few attack subs could decimate Indian Navy in one week. Indian sailors are very good, but could INS Vikramaditya (nee Admiral Gorshkov) take on USS Ronald Reagan? Once the US Navy has control of the Indian coastline, the Hornets would turn their attention towards Indian air force and attack various airfields and hangars - at least those that are on the peninsula.

AIR FORCE. A lot depends on which countries allow the US to use their air bases against India. The US long range bombers could be used from various bases in Europe, Diego Garcia, Pakistan, etc. But until there is air superiority they are vulnerable. Until then, the Hornets would have to duke it out with the Indian Sukhois and MiGs. That won’t be easy. IAF pilots are very good. The USAF could sustain some serious losses. But replenishments would be far easier for the US than for India. It would be hard to gain air superiority over northern parts of India if no nearby country allows the US to use its airbases to operate its bombers from there. (Long range bombers can be used mainly for surgical strikes but not for large scale carpet bombing.) So, through a combination of long range conventional missiles and bombers, the USAF will have to fight it out for air superiority over northern parts of India. Assuming use of overwhelming force, it would take them 2–3 weeks to achieve total air superiority.

让我们把这场冲突分解成三个部分来分析一下:海军、空军和陆军。

海军。目前,也许美国海军是世界上唯一一支真正的蓝水海军。印度海军还只是一支绿水海军。(无意冒犯印度海军及其勇敢的水手——但事实就是事实。我们不要太情绪化。事实是,一个美国航母战斗群就拥有足够的火力击败世界上大多数海军。在印度海军对美国海军的战斗中,也许三个美国航母战斗群和几艘攻击潜艇就足以在一周内摧毁印度海军。印度水手非常优秀,但维克拉马迪亚号能与罗纳德·里根号一较高下吗?一旦美国海军控制了印度海岸线,黄蜂就会把注意力转向印度空军,攻击各个机场和机库—至少半岛上那些。

空军。这在很大程度上取决于哪些国家允许美国使用它们的空军基地来对付印度。美国的远程轰炸机可以在欧洲、迭戈加西亚、巴基斯坦等地的基地使用。但在拥有空中优势之前,它们是脆弱的。在那之前,黄蜂队将不得不与印度苏霍伊斯和米格斯决一死战。这并非易事。印度空军飞行员非常优秀。美国空军可能会遭受严重损失。但对美国而言,资金的补充要比印度容易得多。如果附近国家不允许美国利用其空军基地在印度北部地区操作轰炸机,美国将很难获得对印度北部地区的空中优势。(远程轰炸机主要用于外科手术式打击,但不用于大规模地毯式轰炸。)因此,通过远程常规导弹和轰炸机的组合,美国空军必须与印度北部争夺空中优势。如果使用压倒性的力量,他们需要2-3周的时间来实现完全的空中优势。

ARMY. Let us not even talk about attacking a country with the landmass and population of India. Attacking an army from the sky is not easy and has minimal impact. The Indian Army can easily hide its tanks and personnel carriers and the Army personnel could disguise themselves as civilians. The lessons of Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan are anyway too fresh, too raw. Why the US would even want to consider a land attack on India, is beyond me - even though this is a purely hypothetical question. The Indian army is very good, and on home turf where they know the terrain, local language and customs, etc. how could any invading army take them on? Can any foreign army completely defeat Indian Army in 3–6 weeks on Indian soil? Very, very hard to do if not impossible. (If China which has a land border with India were to attack India by land, they might be able to win a few battles on the border and push inwards but hard to sustain an attack force deep into Indian territory. Once they are cut off from their supply lines they are sitting (Peking) ducks.)

My conclusion is, in 3–6 weeks it would be possible to destroy most of India’s offensive, and air- and naval-defensive capability but not land-defense capability.

陆军。我们先不用谈攻击一个拥有印度这么大国土和人口的国家。从空中攻击一支军队并不容易,而且影响很小。印度军队可以很轻松地把坦克和运兵车藏起来,军队人员可以伪装成平民。为什么美国要考虑对印度发动陆地攻击,我无法理解——尽管这纯粹是一个假设问题。印度军队非常出色,在他们熟悉地形、当地语言和风俗习惯的地盘上,任何侵略军都怎么可能打败他们呢?外国军队能在3-6周内在印度领土上完全击败印度军队吗?即使不是完全不可能,也是非常非常难做到的。(如果与印度接壤的中国从陆路进攻印度,他们或许能在边境赢得几场战斗,并向内陆推进,但其军队很难深入印度领土。一旦他们被切断了供应线,他们就完蛋了。

我的结论是,在3-6周内,若对印度进行空中和海上进攻,印度的空中和海上防御能力有可能被摧毁,但陆地防御能力不可能被摧毁。

 

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Kevin Flint, I've traversed the American continents a few times

The United States could, if properly motivated, inflict enormous damage to the Indian military, industry, economy, infrastructure, and civilian populace, far out of proportion to what could be returned. This in the event of the US going into a "total war" mentality, as it did in World War II (and has not done since.) 

The Indian navy would be quickly eliminated, giving the US total control of the seas. It can position 11 Super carrier task forces in the area if it desired, as well as another 10 smaller helicopter carriers (and their support vessels.) These vessels would support an enormous quantity of combat, bomber, and intelligence gathering aircraft, as well as considerable cruise missile launching capability. 

The Indian air force and air defenses are fairly capable, but the US is well prepared to eliminate much of it on the ground. The enormous US advantage in satellite, drone and AWACS aircraft surveillance coupled with precision cruise missile capabilities would make it very difficult for the IAF to hide their aircraft. The most capable aircraft in the world mean little when they never get to lift off. Those that made it airborne would have considerable challenge making a real dent in US Air capability. 

如果有适当的动机,美国可以对印度的军事、工业、经济、基础设施和平民百姓造成巨大的损害,远远超出可以得到的回报。这只会在美国陷入“全面战争”心态的情况下发生,就像它在第二次世界大战中所做的那样(从那以后再也没有这样做过)。

印度海军将很快被消灭,被美国完全控制海洋。如果愿意,它可以在该地区部署11艘超级航母特遣部队,以及另外10艘小型直升机航母(及其支援舰)。这些舰艇能给大量的战斗、轰炸机和情报收集飞机提供支持,并提供相当大的巡航导弹发射能力。

印度空军和防空力量的能力相当强,但美国已做好充分准备,将在地面上消灭大部分防空力量。美国在卫星、无人机和预警机上的巨大优势,加上精确巡航导弹的能力,将使印度空军很难隐藏他们的飞机。如果世界上最强大的飞机无法起飞,那么它们也就没有什么意义了。已经升空的飞机也将面临相当大的挑战,无法真正削弱美国的空中能力。

With the waters secured and the skies controlled, the US could begin to destroy communication, power, and road networks. Bridges, power plants, satellite relays, cell towers, highways, train tracks, airports. As communication and transportation became impossible, command and control would break down. Ground units would become increasingly isolated and unable to track enemy action.

Remember when I said "total war?" That doesn't mean selective targeting of individual units. That means carpet bombing of cities. That means killing tens of thousands of civilians to reach one small unit of soldiers. That means destroying crops and irrigation and fresh water supplies and sanitation systems. That means creating starvation, thirst, and filth and a massive refuge crisis as people flee fire bombed cities, choking already damaged roads. 

搞定了海域,控制了天空,美国就可能开始摧毁通讯、电力和道路网络。桥梁,发电厂,卫星中继,发射塔,高速公路,火车轨道,机场。由于通讯和运输被破坏,指挥和控制就会崩溃。陆军部队将越来越孤立,无法追踪敌人的行动。

还记得我说过"全面战争"吗?这意味着对城市的地毯式轰炸。这意味着要杀死成千上万的平民才能搜寻到一小支士兵。这意味着破坏农作物、灌溉、淡水供应和卫生系统。意味着造成饥饿、口渴、污秽和大规模的避难危机,因为人们被迫逃离被大火炸毁的城市,堵塞已经受损的道路。

 

Smit Dagli, Humour runs in my veins.

Please note - this is just my personal perspective, and I am not saying that I am right. I am assuming no nuclear weapons are used. This is a long and detailed answer. Excuse the length, but I am taking every possibility here. 

There are certain scenarios and objectives on which the result of this war depends. It also largely depends on how the people of each country react. 

I am assuming that India is not the aggressor, as India doesn't have the logistics to overpower USA. 

Also, the question mentions that no allies will take part in direct war. But I am sure covert help is fine. 

请注意——这只是我个人的观点,我不一定是对的。我假定不使用核武器的情况。这是一个冗长而详细的回答。很抱歉,篇幅太长,但我考虑了所有的可能性。

这场战争的结果取决于某些情况和目标。这在很大程度上还取决于双方国民的反应。

我假设印度不是侵略者,因为印度没有足够的后勤力量压制美国。

此外,该问题还提到,盟国不能参与直接战争。但我相信私下的援助没关系。

1-overthrowing modi government and putting in a puppet government to prevent India 's rise. (not too possible) 

2-complete anarchy over India 

3-complete destruction of every person of india (not too likely). 

1-推翻莫迪政府,组建傀儡政府,阻止印度的崛起。(不太可能)

2-印度完全陷入无政府状态

3-彻底毁灭印度的每一个人(不太可能)。

Now, the Americans can attack either by land, air or sea. Land is not a viable option. So it has to be either air or sea. 

I think it would have begin with a sea invasion, supported by the enormous US navy. Although the IAF is the second biggest in Asia, it isn't too much of a match. So Indian navy and Indian navy is gone. Due to heavy Indian resistance, I am sure 40% of US navy and airforce is wiped out. Now remains the indian army.

Before I continue, there is something I would mention. USA contains a large number of Indian Americans., and they give loads of money as tax to USA govt. Every year. I am sure they won't be too pleased by a full scale invasion. I can confidently say that there will be lots of protests, and tax evasions. The USA will receive at least 15% less tax. Then how will they sponsor this attack? 

现在,美国人可以通过陆地、空中或海上进攻。陆地进攻不现实。所以进攻要么是通过空中、要么是通过海上。

我认为美国应该会从海上开始进攻。尽管印度空军是亚洲第二大空军,但它的实力并不强。由于印度的强烈抵抗,我敢肯定40%的美国海军和空军会被消灭。

在我继续之前,有件事我想提一下。美国有大量的印度人。他们每年给美国政府贡献了大量的税金。我肯定他们对全面入侵会有意见。我可以自信地说,将发生很多抗议和逃税。美国的税收将减少至少15%。他们还怎么为这次袭击买单呢?

Even if they do, every Indian, irrespective of their religion will unite and fight. Someone mentioned that they won't, but that would have been during times when kings ruled India.

每个印度人,不管各自有什么宗教信仰,都会团结起来战斗到底。有人说他们不会,但那是在国王统治印度的时期。

1.They could develop much more weapons by diverting large parts of budget to military, and if worse comes to worse, the common man can be armed with rudimentary weapons.

2.Not to forget the special forces of india, like Marcos, who can easily top a navy seal exam.

3.Indian army is trained to fight in all different territories, ranging from swamps to deserts to mountains to valleys, which the US army can't.

4.Pakistan or China won't do anything, but we can expect some help from Afghanistan in form of terrorists against USA.

5.Russia can aid us with extra weapons.

6.Most oil producing countries, like iran are against the USA. They simply stop oil supply, for India is their ally. USA does have its own oil, but how much will it last?

7.No Indian would provide Americans with food. Most patriotic Indians, like punjabis would burn down their crop.

8.Indian army can do guerrilla attacks on US army, as Indian army is always in a state of readiness against Pakistan and China.

9.India could have continued energy, with the help the extensive deposits of plutonium/uranium(not sure) they are the largest producers of.

10.Americans will eventually run out of supplies.

11.They might destroy the infrastructure, telephone lines, railway stations etc. But it won't mean the end of india.

12.Sure cities like Mumbai, and Delhi won't be there, modi won't be there, but India will survive.

13.US will be hit by enormous debts of trillions, riots etc.

15.The world will go into depression.

1.他们可以把大部分预算转移到军事上,研发出更多的武器,如果情况进一步恶化,普通人也可以拥有基本的武器。

2.别忘了像马科斯这样的印度特种部队,他们能很轻松地通过海豹突击队的测试。

3.印度军队训练有素,可以在所有不同的地区作战,从沼泽到沙漠,从高山到山谷,而美国军队不能。

4.巴基斯坦或中国不会做任何事情,但阿富汗会通过恐怖分子对付美国,为我们提供一些帮助。

5.俄罗斯可以提供更多武器,帮助我们。

6.大多数产油国,比如伊朗都反对美国。他们会停止石油供应,因为印度是他们的盟友。美国是有自己的石油,但能维持多久呢?

7.印度人不会给美国人提供食物。大多数爱国的印度人,比如旁遮普人,会烧掉他们的庄稼。

8.印度军队可以对美国军队发动游击攻击,因为印度军队一直处于对巴基斯坦和中国的战备状态。

9.在钚/铀(不确定)储量丰富的帮助下,印度拥有持续不断的能源供应。

10.美国人的供给最终会耗尽。

11.他们可能破坏基础设施、电话线、火车站等。但这并不意味着印度的末日。

12.当然,像孟买和德里这样的城市可能会消失,莫迪也可能消失,但印度会幸存下来的。

13.美国将背负上数万亿美元巨额债务、骚乱等的冲击。

15.世界将陷入萧条。

India can't be annexed, certainly not within a few weeks. It would take many months and years. 

By the way, one of us said that US has awacs, so they can detect India planes. But even India has awacs. 

But if US allies come into play, India will be decimated. 

Experts on military-feel free to correct any wrong details.

Please upvote if you find the answer good. Thanks

印度绝对不可能在几周内被吞并。这将花费数月乃至数年的时间。

顺便说一下,我们中有人说美国有预警机,所以他们可以监测到印度飞机。但印度一样也有预警机。

但如果美国的盟友也插手,印度将被彻底摧毁。

军事专家们,欢迎你们纠正我的错误。

如果你觉得答案不错,请帮忙点赞。谢谢!

 

Rahul Mehra

Dude! If all the Indian engineers and doctors in US know this, US will be another Afghanistan. But lets ignore such kind of assumptions and let me answer your question.

Short answer.. Can't say, but there would be greater chance that US would give up. You would agree with me. Read further.

-> If USA and India decides to have a war, then I bet it should be US who are expected to make the move and hair towards asia the obvious reason is india don't want to spend money in hailing to USA with all the arms.

-> Its going to take a while for US to get used to the Asiatic territory and land. Most of the India war zones are at high altitudes and it takes some ample amount of time to understand the territory and get used to it. India will have advantage here.

-> Technically US military is having greater number of weapons and are advanced compared to India and India seldom prioritises advancement in armed forces. That being said, it doesn't define a win or loose. US must be prepared to spend fortune in hailing them to surrounding islands.

老兄!如果美国所有的印度工程师和医生都知道这一点,美国将成为另一个阿富汗。但是让我们忽略这些假设吧,我来回答一下你的问题。

简短的回答是,不好说,但美国投降的可能性更大。请继续阅读,你会同意我的观点的。

->如果美国决定和印度开战,那么我打赌美国应该决定向亚洲转移了,原因很明显,印度不会花钱招惹美国。

->美国需要一段时间来适应亚洲的领土和陆地。印度的大部分战区都位于高海拔地区,需要相当长的时间来了解和适应。印度将在这方面占据优势。

->从技术上讲,美国军队拥有比印度更多更先进的武器,印度很少把武装力量的发展列为优先事项。话虽如此,武器无法决定输赢。美国必须准备好花费巨资把他们送到周边岛屿。

-> Skill of the soldiers. US can afford in developing the skill of the soldiers. While its good, in a way its bad. A good example, you have zero account balance, I give you 1 millions dollars. What do you do? You spend it and you don't realise the value of it. But if I give you 100$ you would spend sparingly and you better develop the skill of spending. Same way, In a way Indian soldiers are better deterministic and learnt better. This is not my words, you can see the statistics of india/pakistan war and compare it with USA/Iraq you know how smart is India.

-> The war would bring great economic drop for both the countries and its bad.

-> 士兵的作战水平。美国有能力培养士兵的作战技能。举个很好的例子,你的账户余额为零,我给你100万美元。你会怎么办?你会花掉,却意识不到它的价值。但如果我给你100美元,你久会节省开支,学会怎么花钱。同样的道理,在某种程度上,印度士兵更有决断力,学习能力也更强。这不是我说的,你可以看到印度/巴基斯坦战争的数据,并将其与美国/伊拉克进行比较,你就会知道印度有多聪明。

-> 战争会给两国带来巨大的经济损失。

Conclusion:

For USA its a different ball game all together. And finishing in 3 - 4 weeks is a complete joke. But lets say we brought both forces in to one no mans land, and if the war happens USA could finish the war in 3 - 4 weeks. But in reality its a joke. So, yes USA would be giving up considering the financial damage and life loss. But as I said, Indian technical expertise in USA (doctors, engineers and entrepreneurs) will further cause a severe damage to USA.

结论:

对美国来说,这是一场完全不同的战争。在3 - 4周内结束简直就是个笑话。但是如果战争发生,假设我们把两支部队都派到一个无人地带,美国可以在3 - 4周内结束战争。但实际上这只是个玩笑。所以,是的,考虑到经济损失和生命损失,美国会先投降。但正如我所说,美国的印度技术专家(医生、工程师和企业家)将进一步对美国造成严重损害。

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