Arvind Subramanian defends his GDP overestimation argument
Defending his argument that India's GDP growth overestimated by 2.5%, former Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) Arvind Subramanian said that he had used a specific framework to validate GDP from demand side. He also said that tools like GDP deflator could have been underestimated.
Lending more credence to his GDP argument, he said that no country has grown over 7 per cent with exports below 5 per cent.
India's sustained high GDP growth post 2011, despite macro shocks unlike large emerging markets an indicator, said former CEA.
In his latest research paper, the former chief economic advisor said India’s GDP growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 was probably bumped up by about 2.5 per cent.
Days after Arvind Subramanian's argument, Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) came out with an eight-point rebuttal to the former chief economic advisor claims on growth estimates.
The PMEAC rebuttal read "given the fact that his paper lacks rigour in terms of specific data sources and description, alternative hypothesis, rationale of equation specifications, use of dummies, and robustness-check diagnostics of estimated equations, and choice of countries in the sample and a specific list, it would not stand the scrutiny of academic or policy research standards."
译文来源：阿巴森 http://www.abaripsen.com/48027.html 译者：Joyceliu
Inder Jeet Giroh
M/s Chidrambrurm, Rehuram Rajan,Arvind Subramanian and Dr Manmohan Singh ji were at the helm of affairs, huge bublic funds were given to unscrupulous people. The data was shown as 11 per cent growth. The sectors like Agriculture, Micro Small and Medium industry were ignored. Thus those dishonest entities who were given huge loans without any scrutiny, defrauded the public and siphoned of funds to foreign lands.This had been continuing for too long. The Econmy was mishandled. The benifit of loans did not result in creating employment. An artificial narrative was engineered that the Economy was growing at a faster rate. Now it is well known that huge NPAS are due to dishonest and corrupt bankers, political entities as well as Govt functioneries. The Banking Sector has been damaged to such an extent that it will take a lot of time before it regain s good health. I am at a loss how people like Chidrambrurm and others are criticising the present Government regularly by writing articles in some prominent News Papers. I would request such gentlemen to allow the present authorities to cure the past ills so that we attain a rapid all round growth.
Chidrambrurm、Rehuram Rajan、Arvind Subramanian和Manmohan Singh ji博士掌管着事务，大量的泡沫资金被授予寡廉鲜耻的人身上。数据显示，经济增长了11%。农业、微型中小企业等行业被忽略了。因此，那些没有经过审查就被授予巨额贷款的不良企业，欺骗了公众，并把资金抽向国外。这种情况已经持续太久了。贷款带来的收益并没有创造就业。一种捏造的说法是，经济正在以更快的速度增长。现在众所周知，庞大的不良资产是由无信和附败的银行家、政治实体以及政府职能部门造成的。银行业受到如此严重的损害，要想恢复活力还需要很长时间。我不知道像Chidrambrurm这样的人是如何通过在知名报纸上发表文章，定期批评现任政府的。我请求这些先生们允许现在的当局疗愈过去的痼疾，以便我们实现全面的迅速增长。
ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN IS TOTALLY WRONG. HE HAS NO IDEA OF INDIAN SCINORIO.Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of final goods and services produced within a given country''s borders. It is the most popular method of measuring an economy''s output and is therefore considered a measure of the size of an economy.SERVICE IS NOT MEASURED IN INDIA, AS 85% LABOUR FORCES ARE IN UNORGANISED SECTORS AND NOT COUNTED.SMALL EXAMPLE:MY SERVANT WORKS IN SIX HOUSEHOLDS AND EARNS 36,000 PER MONTH = RS. 432000/- PER YEAR. MY COOK - SHEE WORKS FOR SEVEN FAMILIES AND EARNS 45000/- PER MONTH = 540,000/- PER YEAR.MILLIONS AND MILLIONS OF SUCH PERSONS ARE WORKING.MILLIONS ARE WORKING IN AGRICULTURE SECTORS,MILLIONS WORKS IN SMALL FACTORIES AND HANDICRAFT INDUSTRIES AND ARE NOT ACCOUNTED FOR.REAL GDP OF INDIA IS NOT LESS THAN 12% - TAKING ALL GOODS AND SERVICES - CORRECTLY ACCOUNTED FOR.
This govt is not renewing your contract .You can go to USA . We dont want you. We know how to take care of ourselves. A traitor should not bother to teach us right and wrong
Leaving aside the specifics of the claims made by Arvind Subramanian, the general impression is that the figures have been overstated in recent years. The claims of high growth remain suspect.
Inder Jeet Giroh
I am in complete support of views stated by MrKabir Kakkar.
The Other Angle
At least someone is speaking the truth. Better late than never
We know who have been providing false information and promises to India - this is a ridiculous debate
The internet army of the current govt will ensure that no criticism is permitted. The govt is always right and performs wonderfully. Everyone else will be questioned on motives and competence.
too late for all this, manipulated data fudging will go on
So now he has more knowledge than others, that also at this time. Where was he earlier when data was coming similar in previous years
Country like India cannot be able to grow export over 5 percent and still it can have GDP over 7 percent. Because of demand side growth due to its youth population and most populous country in the world.Dr Subramanian should relook into his economics.
exports were growing at 15-25% from 2005 to 2012, except during 2008-09 Gloval Financial Crisis
Dinesh Babu Vivaramneni
These are all manipulated ones.. Truth will never be known
When Arvind was enjoying the perks of Govt. of India he chose to stay silent. If people of his stature and power decide that they will serve their self interest before that of the nation then what chance do normal bureaucrats have of being neutral and non-partisan. Now when he has relinquished his position and is safely settled in his well paying job in the US, he suddenly decides to show the world what an honest and upright person he is by speaking about the GDP numbers being wrong. Shame on him and on all those like him who serve only their self interests. If he had spoken during his tenure the world would have respected him. Now he is just making a laughing stock of himself and of our country. I don’t care bit about his reputation. But I do care about India’s image. He should be brought back to India and made to speak before a parliamentary panel and explain his double-speak and what was the reason his tongue was held in check while he sat and enjoyed all the perks of power.
Modi is hiding behind a big mountain of manipulative statistics conjured up to defend his govt and whatever growth achieved. Whatever GDP statistics and efforts made to defend Rafael deal are no different. No wonder Modi chose ace defender of Rafael as his FinMin to continue the show.
5% is Realistic. We can easily get to 10%. Call me.
Umm, unlike China, India is led by domestic economy not exports. This is working in our favor given trade war. Modi is right to focus on domestic economy to insulate ourselves from problems outside of India. We must be self reliant before the great depression hits the U.S.
But for Balakot and the stupidity of Saeed, the election result of 2019 would certainly have been different. With such poor economic growth, there would not have been any chance of the ruling party coming back to power with such huge margins and numbers.
You were part of the Govt that too as CEA. Why could you have the courage to bring it up when you had the authority. Very unethical behaviour
It is really surprising that Arvind Subramanian financial advisor & Raghuram Rajan first as economic adviser and later as RBI Governor were at the helm of economic activities during their tenure didn''t address various issues at that time and now offering comments, does this mean that they have fooled go nment of the day and Nation even though they are supposed to be intelligent.
真的很奇怪，财务顾问Arvind Subramanian& Raghuram Rajan首先是经济顾问，后来出任央行主管，他们曾经主管经济活动，但在他们的任期内没有解决各种问题，现在却评头论足，这是否意味着他们曾经愚弄了政府和国家，他们应该很聪明，但又如何。
Such could be avoided if you start employing Indian qualified economists instead of imported economists like Arvind Subramaniam
And a finance minister who was not an economist !
Mr. AS, please stop your research. I have learnt from my parents, don''t try to argue with a bus conductor. Whatever the theory may be, the practical life is something different.
Arvind Subramanian, will you please shut up?
Dear AbS please ignore India now, this go nment will not give you any credence as the hiding game will continue. We wish to work on designed and fabricated data instead of established numbers. Currently sailing smooth and suddenly will fall into whirlpool.